Boy’s Cross-Country Poll Week #4 October 5, 2008 Class AA By Tom Cuffe, Nyc Area – Poll Editor
Class A By Jason De Joy, Rochester Area
Class B By Tim Fulton, Armory Track
Class C By Ed Stickles, Westchester Area
Class D By Pete Szymanski, Buffalo Area NYC by Tim Fulton, Armory Track
Editors note
New Fab Five #1 Shenendehowa had all hands on deck at the Grout Run as they destroyed the field and a very fine Queensbury team with 18 points. The Plainsmen coached by Mark Thompson had an outstanding five man average of 13:39.67 and their compression was 34 seconds! SWR moves down to #2 in the Fab Five but keep in mind they put up some fast times and very good numbers at the Bob Pratt meet on September 20. Burnt Hills beat #5 FM last week head to head at Mc Quaid 80 to 88 in a battle of NYS powers. North Rockland makes in first appearance in the Fab Five at #4 off of their strong performance at the St. Anthony’s Invitational averaging 17:13.04 over the rugged Sunken Meadow course.
It should also be noted that several teams took a hit in the rankings this week because they had team members taking the SAT.
The Manhattan Colleges races next week will be simply exceptional. The Boys Eastern States Championship race may well be the greatest collection of teams EVER gathered for one championship race in the history of Van Cortlandt Park – and that my friends is saying a lot about the quality of the field!!! Stay tuned.
overall top ten
1 – Shenendehowa
2 – Shoreham-Wading River
3 – Burnt Hills
4 – North Rockland
5 – Fayetteville-Manlius
6 – Suffern
7 – Warwick Valley
8 – Arlington
9 – Queensbury
10 – Monsignor Farrell
CLASS AA
1.Shenendehowa (2)
2.North Rockland (1)
3.Fayetteville-Manlius (3)
4.Suffern (1)
5.Warwick Valley (9)
6.Arlington(1)
7.Monsignor Farrell(CHSAA)
8.St. Anthony’s(CHSAA)
9.Smithtown (11)
10.Webster Thomas (5)
11.MSIT (PSAL)
12.Rush Henrietta (5)
13.Brockport (5)
14.Binghamton (4)
15.Washingtonville(9)
16.Cicero-North Syracuse (3)
17.Chaminade (CHSAA)
18.Monroe Woodbury (9)
19.Northport (11)
20.Liverpool(3)
Bubble Teams (HM)
Baldwinsville (3)
Ithaca (4)
Kellenberg Memorial(CHSAA)
Scarsdale(1)
Walt Whitman (11)
CLASS A
1. Burnt-Hills –2
2. Queensbury – 2
3. Wantagh – 8
4. Jamesville Dewitt – 3
5. Brighton – 5
6. Pittsford-Mendon – 5
7. Canisius – CHSAA
8. McQuaid Jesuit – 5
9. Niskayuna – 2
10. East Syracuse Minoa – 3
11. Brewster – 1
12. Averill Park – 2
13. Maine Endwell – 4
14. Union Endicott – 4
15. Horace Greeley – 1
16. Somers – 1
17. Fox Lane – 1
18. Pittsford Sutherland – 5
19. Kings Park – 11
20. Irondequoit – 5
Class B
1.Shoreham-Wading River - 11
2.HFL - 5
3.East Aurora – 6
4.Westhill - 3
5.New Hartford – 3
6.Windsor – 4
7.Elmira Free Academy - 4
8.Red Hook – 9
9.Marcellus
10.Byram Hills
11.Pearl River - 1
12.Wayne – 5
13.Broadalbin Perth - 2
14.Fredonia - 6
15.North Shore - 8
16.Manhassett - 8
CLASS C
1.Newark Valley (4) No results found for this past weekend. Defending state champs will remain #1 unless someone can beat them.
2.Canastota (3) Won the Tully Invitational Small School Race with a 17:23 average. 1:50 spread from 1-5 is 9 sec. better than last week.156.4 average speed rating is only .2 less than last week in Utica.
3.Tully (3) 3rd. place at their home invitational to Canastota. 17:39 avg. 1:12 spread 1-5. 150.8 average speed rating for top 5.
4.Jordan Elbridge (3) Ran in the Liverpool Invite and won the C/D race.149.6 average speed rating is about 4 pts. lower than last week. 1:45 spread from 1-5.
5.Irvington (1) Won the small school race at St. Anthony’s on the state meet course.18:24 average on Snake and Cemetary hills is pretty good.147.8 average speed rating and 1:45 spread for 1-5. Beat previously #8 ranked Pawling in the process.
6.Clinton (3) 4th place at Tully invite. 17:49 average for 1-5.54 second spread is 5 sec. better than last week.147.4 average speed rating.
7.Gowanda (6) No results found
8.Fredonia (6) 2nd. At the Southern Tier Invite with a 52 sec. spread from 1-5.
9.Pawling (1) 2nd. To Irvington at St. Anthony’s with a 18:45 average and a 45 sec. spread for 1-5.
10.Dobbs Ferry (1) This team had a 153 average speed rating last week but was only able to field a team of 4 at Sunken Meadow this weekend.Without depth this team will not be able to keep in the mix.
BUBBLE TEAMS - HM
Voorheesville (2) No results.
Holland Patent (3) No results.
Trumansburg (4) 6th place at Tully invite with an 18:18 average. 1:40 spread from 1-5. 138 average speed rating.
D. Rhinebeck (9), 15:26 average at Grout this week and the 2:52 spread of last week is history as they squeeze it to 1:33.
E. Tri Valley (9) 16:04 average at Grout, beating Fonda Fultonville. 61 sec. spread from 1-5.
Wow, amazing. Dobbs wins Big Red Div 2 ahead of #13 Class A Somers, and takes second behind only Fox Lane in Bowdoin Varsity race and they don't get a C ranking? What's it take to get a ranking, beating a ranked Class AA team?
Knowing the ranking system though, can't say I'm totally surprised.
In the girls rankings, the Section 10 team Canton is in Class B, and probably should make the list of ranked B teams. Irvington would thus move up to # 10 on list.
The girls Class C have four teams that have separated themselves from the other teams. For those who consider the Tully Ratings to be a useful general tools for gauging team strengths (as opposed to the player ranking you can get from the Milesplit tool), the weekly averaged Speed Rating average for the top 5 runners on each team is:
So the teams are pretty close, the assigned rankings are reasonable though Rhinebeck is a rising force, and I expect Bronxville especially will be raising its SRs soon.
On the boys side, there are 5 teams that have pushed their average SRs at or above the 147 mark, and they are they are ranked teams 1. Newark Valley (154), 4. Cantastota (152), 7. Holland Patent (149), 9. Jordan Elbridge (147), and also unranked Dobbs (149). The teams ranked 5th and 6th are Bronxville and Rhinebeck who have SRs of 131 and 132, so it's hard to see why they would get a ranking since there are 10 teams with SRs of 140 or higher (#8 Irvington is at 143, BTW).
So the girls C ratings look pretty much right on. The boys? Go figure.
Thanks for your input on these - usually after a few weeks they fix themselves but please keep commenting so the proper teams get the recognition they deserve.
Niskayuna Girls are a class A school this year. At Suffern we were less than a minute behind Montecello and beat Whitesboro by 3 minutes at Herrmann without our second runner. Still not ranked in the A's?
I dont mean to come off bitter , but how is Walt Whitman not ranked in class AA.
Comparing Whitman's speed ratings to other state ranked teams shows that Whitman should be in
Chris Buchanan Cicero-North Syracuse 179
Levy, Jared Walt Whitman 166
Eric Hart Cicero-North Syracuse 161
Colapinto, Nick Walt Whitman 159
Burger, Scott Walt Whitman 158
Keegan, Mike Walt Whitman 156
Sheridan, Justin Walt Whitman 155
Jared Walther Cicero-North Syracuse 155
DeNuzzo, Dylan Walt Whitman 152
Windisch, Ben Walt Whitman 149
Nick Dunbar Cicero-North Syracuse 148
Mike Kavanagh Cicero-North Syracuse 146
I am very suprised to see that Yorktown isn't ranked in class A. They had a top five average of 18:46.77 at the Gressler invitational and Fox Lane (NYS A #7) averaged 18:51.90 on the same course.
Yes, Whitman's average SRs are at 159 which is better than some of the ranked AA teams, so it does appear that they should be looked at for a place in the high teens.
Fox Lane was running without their #2 runner after an impressive showing last week, so I am not sure how much you can take away for the average time comparison between them and Yorktown. Yorktown did have an average time 13 seconds behind Pearl River in the Varsity 1 race, after all, and only two of their runners got Speed Ratings above 135. That's not very strong for an A-Class school.
Lastly, the formatting for the boys' section is very odd with bad margin settings that cause the first two letters of the headings, the 'CL' to be cut off. Makes for an interesting read.
Reviewing Class C rankings for top 10 teams compared to Team Average Speed Ratings, with a few exceptions the ranking look pretty on the money, allowing some latitude with TASR interpretations.
Here the results are a little more mixed with Fredonia needing more love and Tri-Valley perhaps a little less until they get a stronger 5th runner. From a Section 1 point of view, I would say that Section 9 should return Pawling to us (note ID error in the rankings) and that once that is done the 4th team from Section 1 deserving a ranking is Hastings.
Complete comparisons of the ranked order vs Team Average Speed Ratings for the Girls classes AA, A, and B are:
AA
1. Fayetteville Manlius (137.6), 2. Saratoga (127.2), 3. Shenendehowa (125.2), 4. Arlington (112.4), 5. Suffern (107.6), 6. Warwick (109), 7. Northport (106), 8. Bayshore (101.8), 9. St. John Baptist (98.4), 10. Guilderland (101). --Almost exactly in alignment.
A
1. Queensbury (121.8), 2. Burnt Hilla (127.8), 3. Canandaigua (112.4), 4. Cornwall (108.4), 5. Holy Names (101.4), 6. Pittsford Mendham (109.8), 7. Ursuline (91.2), 8. Monticello (95.6), 9. St. John Villa (87.0), 10. Brighton (87.0). ---TASRs say Burnt Hills should have a big lead over Queensbury for top spot. Pittsford Mendham should be higher.
B
1. East Aurora (116), 2. Maine Endwell (103), 3. Pearl River (110), 4. North Shore (109), 5. Broadalbin-Perth (95), 6. Honeoye Falls-Lima (96.8), 7. Geneva (97.2), 8. Cobleskill-Richmond (80), 9. Westhill (74.4), 10. Mt. Sinai (72). ---Main difference is with Maine Endwell, which should seemingly be moved back to 4th.
The Top 10 Overall of the TASR is somewhat close to the selected list. The TASR order would be:
1. Fayetteville Manlius, 2. Burnt Hills, 3. Saratoga, 4. Shenendehowa, 5. Queensbury, 6. East Aurora, 7t. Arlington, 7t. Canandaigua, 9. Pearl River, 10. Pittsford Mendham. Next five would be Warwick, North Shore, Cornwall, Suffern, and Northport. ---
I still think that Yorktown will suprise a lot of teams in class A by beating at least one of the teams ranked ahead of them at sectionals. The rankings are a useful tool but are meaningless come race day.
Totally agree that the rankings are only trying to be a current snapshot of how the teams are stacking up and that much could change for better or worse in the 4 weeks to the Sectionals. But Yorktown's hopes for beating any of the other four 1-A teams with better SRs depend on pulling the 3-4-5 runners up 40 or more seconds since Kumar and Humphrey only count for two places.
How did Broadalbin girls move beneath HFL in Class B? If you look at speed ratings from this past weekend, Broadalbin's top 5 had an average of 98.6, compared to HFL's 90.0. Sure HFL might have been missing a runner or two due to illness or SAT's, but so was Broadalbin...That's just an odd move in the rankings.
people need to stop using just speed rankings as their basis for why a team is better than another. Read the articles about the speed ratings and you will see that they are not the be all and end all, they are not always accurate based on the ease of course, if the ranker knows the course, the quality of the field, etc.
Look more at the times run by the teams and the spread of their teams. Having a very fast runner will obviously affect the speed average of the team, even if the gap is 2-3 minutes and teams with lower speed averages will fill in and thus win.
bxvtrack,
I was just using that as a comparison that I know other people will understand. I've devised a method which takes into account speed ratings, average miles, and the overall time gap between the first and fifth runners. That is more what I used to make my basis that I earlier stated, but I figured I would make it more general so more people understand. IMO, Class B Girls Top 6 right now should go: East Aurora, Pearl River, North Shore, Broadalbin-Perth, Maine-Endwell, Honeoye Falls-Lima. That is how my rankings works it out to look like
How did Broadalbin girls move beneath HFL in Class B? If you look at speed ratings from this past weekend, Broadalbin's top 5 had an average of 98.6, compared to HFL's 90.0. Sure HFL might have been missing a runner or two due to illness or SAT's, but so was Broadalbin...That's just an odd move in the rankings.
Yeah, the Honeoye Falls and Broadalbin-Perth situation is strange because it's a confused Speed Ratings case. Last week according to the SRs, HF should have been ranked ahead of BP, but after apparently a lackluster performance by HF this weekend and a huge improvement by BP, the flip gets made in the wrong direction. Whether you give only tepid value to SRs or give HF a pass for missing a top 5 runner (as was BP), it's hard to understand that one. And some rankers might say that HF should be dropped way down for not having enough quality runners if they can't keep pace when missing one girl.
Although the ranking system has gotten quite good overall, especially on the boys' side, you still have the caveat that different rankers apply different criteria in making their lists. One team will use only 3 runners for a DNS and stay the same in the ratings while another team will do the same thing and be dumped way down with the comment comment that they need depth. A team such as FM will stay in place after keeping their top 2 runners out of a meet and have a sizable 5 point SR deficit for the weekend to Warwick Valley. Another team will have the "strictly by the results" scoring applied to them. A ranked team will run a few girls in a sophomore race or not run at all at a meet where their boys are running and will be given a pass, and others won't. And then you have the odd Girls Class C situation where Newark Valley falls from 2nd to 4th after sitting out the weekend. And while the 3rd ranked C team Rhinebeck again has a much better SR than either Bronxville or Tully over the weekend, they remain behind those two teams probably on the yet to be proved theory that having a top 3 that is better than your competition and a 4-5 a little behind them puts you at a disadvantage against your better-packed opponent. Personally, I'll take the SR data over the other stuff pulled up to justify rankings.
Again, ranking HS teams is a wizard's craft working with fleeting vapors that quickly disappear, but it would be a little more believable if the same spells were applied to all the conjured up views. They do help to motivate teams in many wonderful ways.
You will always have disagreements on rankings, based on ones own bias. Having multiple people doing the rankings will result in differing criteria, however, if a team chooses to run on the weekend then they should accept that that performance will be judged. If a highly ranked football team loses to a lesser team due to injuries, academic inel., etc. the Journal News drops them based on the team that is put on the field. Cross Country is a sport that is judged by times that are run and it's pretty easy to see the differences especially on the same courses. Coaches who choose to run or not run also understand that it will affect rankings, but I'll bet they know it's no big deal, as long as they know what they have ready to run when they need them. The people doing rankings are not given complimentary phone calls to explain why teams ran what they did, we are left to evaluate the team that made it to the starting line on that day.
Using just the speed ratings from this past weekend and looking at girls class C as Dobbsrover2 pointed out, a 3 way meet between Rhinebeck, Tully and Bronxville looks closer than he makes it out to be. I get scores that put Rhinebeck at 40, Bronxville wins for 2nd in tie breaker against Tully 42 to 42. Throw in all of the other teams in the state meet and the continuing improvements in the health of a couple of runners and it will be an interesting meet at states if all parties make it.
As I was saying in the earlier post, there still a decent gap in girls C in the SRs between #3 Rhinebeck and #1 Bronxville. Rhinebeck has 3 girls running better than the top Bronco and their previously less-than-strong 4-5 runners have been making nice gains the last two weeks which could be a problem for the Broncos. Sect 1 is all hoping that Tori can get back up there and that the Broncos pack can move closer to the Clark(e)s and Marvin, but at this point I'm not sure that the rankings can be justified by the supposed standards.
And a big thanks to the pollster for putting the Dobbs girls behind a last place Dover team with a team average SR of 33 this weekend after the shorthanded Eagles beat out the #3 Class B team by 40 points. That's even more priceless than the boys' nonranking in the Week 2 State polls. I guess that Pleasantville wasn't available this week unlike last week since the Dobbs girls had a 74 second advantage per runner over the Panthers at St. Anthony. What a funny reach, just great. Keep it coming for the postseason.
Def a fan of those Bronco girls and hoping they pack it in for the States since along with the Pirate girls they're Sect 1's best hope for a team title.
Correction: Carmel was not off, that was an editing error not caught when finalized before posted, sorry. Carmel did finish 2nd to Mahopac at Brewster, had an 18:23 team avg. witha 2:21 spread for 1-5 and a 135.2 Speed Rating, sorry again about that, but still an Honorable Mention criteria.
